Bowl Buzz: So, you’re saying there’s a chance?
November 21, 2019 | Football, Andy Baggot, Bowl Central
Bowl predictions stay friendly for Badgers with two games left in Big Ten play
Each week leading up to the announcement of the Badgers' bowl destination on Dec. 8, Andy Baggot will take a look at one of Wisconsin's potential destinations. More information is available at UWBowlCentral.com.
 |
||
|
BY ANDY BAGGOT
UWBadgers.com Insider
MADISON, Wis. — The bowl picture for the Wisconsin football team remains largely unchanged from last week even though its status in the College Football Playoff ranking improved.
The Badgers (8-2 overall) moved up a spot to No. 12, making them the highest-rated two-loss club in the field entering their Big Ten Conference game with Purdue on Saturday at Camp Randall Stadium.
🆕 @CFBPlayoff ranking ⤵️ We're up to No. 12! #OnWisconsin » #Badgers
— Wisconsin Football (@BadgerFootball) November 19, 2019
With two regular-season games remaining and a potential berth in the Big Ten championship game on the horizon, bowl forecasters still have Wisconsin in the mix for the Rose Bowl (CBS Sports, ESPN), Gator (The Athletic) and Citrus (ESPN).
CBS has the Badgers facing Oregon on Jan. 1 in Pasadena, California, while Mark Schlabach of ESPN has them matched against Utah.
Kyle Bonagura of ESPN predicts Wisconsin will draw Auburn in the Citrus Bowl on Jan. 1 in Orlando, Florida.
Some wonder if Wisconsin could make the four-team playoff. The likely short answer is no, but Nate Silver's data-driven FiveThirtyEight website provides some interesting context — 2019 College Football Predictions - FiveThirtyEight.com (Editor's Note: Calculations update frequently. A fun projection tool to play with for fans).
As things stand right now, the Badgers have a 6 percent chance of making the playoff field. They trail Clemson (89 percent), LSU (68), Ohio State (66), Georgia (47), Oregon (38), Oklahoma (28), Utah (26), Alabama (14) and Penn State (12).
According to FiveThirtyEight, Wisconsin currently has a better chance of making the playoff than Big Ten rival Minnesota, which is 9-1 overall and closes out the regular season by hosting the Badgers in a West Division duel on Nov. 30. The Gophers have a 5 percent chance of qualifying for the playoff.
Things really get interesting in the forecast if Wisconsin wins out: beating Purdue and Minnesota before conquering, say, unbeaten Ohio State (10-0) in the Big Ten title game.
In that scenario, the Badgers would have a 42 percent chance of making the playoff semifinals, but they would still trail Clemson (90), LSU (74), Georgia (50) and Oregon (46). Oklahoma (33) and Utah (27) would be right behind UW.
The upside: Wisconsin would bowl on one of the biggest stages in the college football postseason, either the Cotton, Orange, Rose or Sugar.
The downside: For the third straight season, the Big Ten could miss out on the CFP.
